1 00:00:12,646 --> 00:00:15,289 So I'd like you to imagine for a moment 2 00:00:15,313 --> 00:00:17,693 that you're a soldier in the heat of battle. 3 00:00:18,550 --> 00:00:22,081 Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer 4 00:00:22,105 --> 00:00:23,985 or maybe you're a Zulu warrior. 5 00:00:24,009 --> 00:00:28,263 Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant. 6 00:00:28,287 --> 00:00:30,181 Your adrenaline is elevated, 7 00:00:30,205 --> 00:00:35,014 and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes, 8 00:00:35,038 --> 00:00:39,394 reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side 9 00:00:39,418 --> 00:00:41,107 and to defeat the enemy. 10 00:00:42,646 --> 00:00:46,183 So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role, 11 00:00:46,207 --> 00:00:47,808 that of the scout. 12 00:00:47,832 --> 00:00:51,221 The scout's job is not to attack or defend. 13 00:00:51,245 --> 00:00:53,640 The scout's job is to understand. 14 00:00:54,053 --> 00:00:56,114 The scout is the one going out, 15 00:00:56,138 --> 00:01:00,201 mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles. 16 00:01:00,225 --> 00:01:03,801 And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge 17 00:01:03,825 --> 00:01:06,159 in a convenient location across a river. 18 00:01:06,183 --> 00:01:09,230 But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there, 19 00:01:09,254 --> 00:01:10,847 as accurately as possible. 20 00:01:12,015 --> 00:01:17,061 And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential. 21 00:01:17,085 --> 00:01:22,395 But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset -- 22 00:01:22,419 --> 00:01:26,046 a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas 23 00:01:26,070 --> 00:01:27,537 in our daily lives. 24 00:01:28,012 --> 00:01:31,842 What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment, 25 00:01:31,866 --> 00:01:35,080 making accurate predictions, making good decisions, 26 00:01:35,104 --> 00:01:37,862 is mostly about which mindset you're in. 27 00:01:38,814 --> 00:01:41,407 To illustrate these mindsets in action, 28 00:01:41,431 --> 00:01:44,915 I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France, 29 00:01:44,939 --> 00:01:47,922 where this innocuous-looking piece of paper 30 00:01:47,946 --> 00:01:50,984 launched one of the biggest political scandals in history. 31 00:01:51,538 --> 00:01:55,935 It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff. 32 00:01:56,436 --> 00:01:59,128 It was torn up in a wastepaper basket, 33 00:01:59,152 --> 00:02:01,077 but when they pieced it back together, 34 00:02:01,101 --> 00:02:03,133 they discovered that someone in their ranks 35 00:02:03,157 --> 00:02:05,520 had been selling military secrets to Germany. 36 00:02:06,282 --> 00:02:08,639 So they launched a big investigation, 37 00:02:08,663 --> 00:02:12,529 and their suspicions quickly converged on this man, 38 00:02:12,553 --> 00:02:13,885 Alfred Dreyfus. 39 00:02:14,687 --> 00:02:16,005 He had a sterling record, 40 00:02:16,029 --> 00:02:19,549 no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell. 41 00:02:20,162 --> 00:02:25,280 But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army, 42 00:02:25,304 --> 00:02:29,479 and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic. 43 00:02:29,503 --> 00:02:32,725 They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo 44 00:02:32,749 --> 00:02:34,686 and concluded that it was a match, 45 00:02:34,710 --> 00:02:37,752 even though outside professional handwriting experts 46 00:02:37,776 --> 00:02:39,926 were much less confident in the similarity, 47 00:02:39,950 --> 00:02:41,340 but never mind that. 48 00:02:41,364 --> 00:02:43,404 They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment, 49 00:02:43,428 --> 00:02:45,184 looking for any signs of espionage. 50 00:02:45,208 --> 00:02:48,168 They went through his files, and they didn't find anything. 51 00:02:48,192 --> 00:02:51,326 This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty, 52 00:02:51,350 --> 00:02:54,643 but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence 53 00:02:54,667 --> 00:02:56,516 before they had managed to get to it. 54 00:02:57,032 --> 00:02:59,724 Next, they went and looked through his personal history 55 00:02:59,748 --> 00:03:02,049 for any incriminating details. 56 00:03:02,073 --> 00:03:03,675 They talked to his teachers, 57 00:03:03,699 --> 00:03:06,484 they found that he had studied foreign languages in school, 58 00:03:06,508 --> 00:03:10,561 which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments 59 00:03:10,585 --> 00:03:11,768 later in life. 60 00:03:11,792 --> 00:03:17,803 His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory, 61 00:03:17,827 --> 00:03:19,939 which was highly suspicious, right? 62 00:03:19,963 --> 00:03:23,303 You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things. 63 00:03:24,259 --> 00:03:27,919 So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty. 64 00:03:28,636 --> 00:03:31,956 Afterwards, they took him out into this public square 65 00:03:31,980 --> 00:03:35,704 and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform 66 00:03:35,728 --> 00:03:37,633 and broke his sword in two. 67 00:03:37,657 --> 00:03:39,672 This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus. 68 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,197 And they sentenced him to life imprisonment 69 00:03:43,221 --> 00:03:45,961 on the aptly named Devil's Island, 70 00:03:45,985 --> 00:03:48,809 which is this barren rock off the coast of South America. 71 00:03:49,376 --> 00:03:53,126 So there he went, and there he spent his days alone, 72 00:03:53,150 --> 00:03:55,654 writing letters and letters to the French government 73 00:03:55,678 --> 00:03:58,986 begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence. 74 00:03:59,454 --> 00:04:02,367 But for the most part, France considered the matter closed. 75 00:04:03,121 --> 00:04:07,414 One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair 76 00:04:07,438 --> 00:04:11,216 is this question of why the officers were so convinced 77 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:12,961 that Dreyfus was guilty. 78 00:04:13,376 --> 00:04:16,223 I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up, 79 00:04:16,247 --> 00:04:18,215 that they were intentionally framing him. 80 00:04:18,239 --> 00:04:20,506 But historians don't think that's what happened. 81 00:04:20,530 --> 00:04:21,689 As far as we can tell, 82 00:04:21,713 --> 00:04:25,950 the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong. 83 00:04:25,974 --> 00:04:28,450 Which makes you wonder: 84 00:04:28,474 --> 00:04:30,748 What does it say about the human mind 85 00:04:30,772 --> 00:04:33,085 that we can find such paltry evidence 86 00:04:33,109 --> 00:04:35,196 to be compelling enough to convict a man? 87 00:04:36,030 --> 00:04:40,316 Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning." 88 00:04:40,340 --> 00:04:43,394 It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations, 89 00:04:43,418 --> 00:04:45,770 our desires and fears, 90 00:04:45,794 --> 00:04:48,140 shape the way we interpret information. 91 00:04:48,164 --> 00:04:51,574 Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies. 92 00:04:51,598 --> 00:04:54,240 We want them to win. We want to defend them. 93 00:04:54,264 --> 00:04:56,795 And other information or ideas are the enemy, 94 00:04:56,819 --> 00:04:58,387 and we want to shoot them down. 95 00:04:59,228 --> 00:05:02,935 So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset." 96 00:05:03,808 --> 00:05:06,813 Probably most of you have never persecuted 97 00:05:06,837 --> 00:05:09,118 a French-Jewish officer for high treason, 98 00:05:09,142 --> 00:05:10,615 I assume, 99 00:05:10,639 --> 00:05:15,498 but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed 100 00:05:15,522 --> 00:05:19,644 that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul, 101 00:05:19,668 --> 00:05:20,830 for example, 102 00:05:20,854 --> 00:05:23,947 you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong. 103 00:05:24,302 --> 00:05:27,414 But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome! 104 00:05:27,438 --> 00:05:30,000 That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely. 105 00:05:30,612 --> 00:05:32,729 Or, maybe you've read an article or a study 106 00:05:32,753 --> 00:05:35,459 that examined some controversial policy, 107 00:05:35,483 --> 00:05:36,699 like capital punishment. 108 00:05:37,555 --> 00:05:39,672 And, as researchers have demonstrated, 109 00:05:39,696 --> 00:05:41,401 if you support capital punishment 110 00:05:41,425 --> 00:05:43,941 and the study shows that it's not effective, 111 00:05:43,965 --> 00:05:47,211 then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons 112 00:05:47,235 --> 00:05:49,408 why the study was poorly designed. 113 00:05:49,432 --> 00:05:51,638 But if it shows that capital punishment works, 114 00:05:51,662 --> 00:05:52,821 it's a good study. 115 00:05:52,845 --> 00:05:56,093 And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing. 116 00:05:56,117 --> 00:05:58,946 Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously, 117 00:05:58,970 --> 00:06:01,248 by which side we want to win. 118 00:06:01,891 --> 00:06:03,780 And this is ubiquitous. 119 00:06:03,804 --> 00:06:06,842 This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships, 120 00:06:06,866 --> 00:06:08,762 how we decide how to vote, 121 00:06:08,786 --> 00:06:11,154 what we consider fair or ethical. 122 00:06:11,856 --> 00:06:14,619 What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning 123 00:06:14,643 --> 00:06:15,794 or soldier mindset, 124 00:06:15,818 --> 00:06:17,065 is how unconscious it is. 125 00:06:17,089 --> 00:06:20,369 We can think we're being objective and fair-minded 126 00:06:20,393 --> 00:06:23,860 and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man. 127 00:06:24,828 --> 00:06:27,711 However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over. 128 00:06:27,735 --> 00:06:29,103 This is Colonel Picquart. 129 00:06:29,127 --> 00:06:31,671 He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army, 130 00:06:31,695 --> 00:06:34,324 and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty. 131 00:06:34,713 --> 00:06:39,138 Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic. 132 00:06:39,162 --> 00:06:42,527 But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect: 133 00:06:43,122 --> 00:06:45,897 "What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?" 134 00:06:46,268 --> 00:06:48,446 What happened was, he had discovered evidence 135 00:06:48,470 --> 00:06:50,947 that the spying for Germany had continued, 136 00:06:50,971 --> 00:06:52,946 even after Dreyfus was in prison. 137 00:06:53,336 --> 00:06:56,632 And he had also discovered that another officer in the army 138 00:06:56,656 --> 00:06:59,229 had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo, 139 00:06:59,253 --> 00:07:01,614 much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting. 140 00:07:02,202 --> 00:07:05,043 So he brought these discoveries to his superiors, 141 00:07:05,837 --> 00:07:09,514 but to his dismay, they either didn't care 142 00:07:09,538 --> 00:07:13,126 or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings, 143 00:07:13,150 --> 00:07:18,523 like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy 144 00:07:18,547 --> 00:07:20,920 who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting, 145 00:07:20,944 --> 00:07:24,484 and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left. 146 00:07:24,968 --> 00:07:26,618 But Dreyfus is still guilty." 147 00:07:27,674 --> 00:07:30,699 Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated. 148 00:07:30,723 --> 00:07:32,251 But it took him 10 years, 149 00:07:32,275 --> 00:07:34,806 and for part of that time, he himself was in prison 150 00:07:34,830 --> 00:07:37,128 for the crime of disloyalty to the army. 151 00:07:38,311 --> 00:07:44,311 A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story 152 00:07:44,335 --> 00:07:48,564 because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with. 153 00:07:49,143 --> 00:07:53,794 But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic 154 00:07:53,818 --> 00:07:56,403 actually makes his actions more admirable, 155 00:07:56,427 --> 00:07:59,543 because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased 156 00:07:59,567 --> 00:08:01,352 as his fellow officers, 157 00:08:01,376 --> 00:08:06,011 but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that. 158 00:08:06,928 --> 00:08:08,117 So to me, 159 00:08:08,141 --> 00:08:11,947 Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset." 160 00:08:12,418 --> 00:08:16,494 It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose, 161 00:08:16,518 --> 00:08:18,442 but just to see what's really there 162 00:08:18,466 --> 00:08:20,941 as honestly and accurately as you can, 163 00:08:20,965 --> 00:08:24,245 even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant. 164 00:08:25,264 --> 00:08:28,510 This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about. 165 00:08:28,534 --> 00:08:33,663 And I've spent the last few years examining and trying to figure out 166 00:08:33,687 --> 00:08:35,670 what causes scout mindset. 167 00:08:35,694 --> 00:08:38,842 Why are some people, sometimes at least, 168 00:08:38,866 --> 00:08:42,654 able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations 169 00:08:42,678 --> 00:08:44,973 and just try to see the facts and the evidence 170 00:08:44,997 --> 00:08:46,470 as objectively as they can? 171 00:08:47,422 --> 00:08:50,433 And the answer is emotional. 172 00:08:50,939 --> 00:08:54,706 So, just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotions 173 00:08:54,730 --> 00:08:57,718 like defensiveness or tribalism, 174 00:08:58,435 --> 00:08:59,801 scout mindset is, too. 175 00:08:59,825 --> 00:09:01,811 It's just rooted in different emotions. 176 00:09:01,835 --> 00:09:05,254 For example, scouts are curious. 177 00:09:05,278 --> 00:09:08,824 They're more likely to say they feel pleasure 178 00:09:08,848 --> 00:09:10,508 when they learn new information 179 00:09:10,532 --> 00:09:12,843 or an itch to solve a puzzle. 180 00:09:13,364 --> 00:09:16,533 They're more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something 181 00:09:16,557 --> 00:09:18,653 that contradicts their expectations. 182 00:09:19,026 --> 00:09:21,003 Scouts also have different values. 183 00:09:21,027 --> 00:09:24,099 They're more likely to say they think it's virtuous 184 00:09:24,123 --> 00:09:25,612 to test your own beliefs, 185 00:09:25,636 --> 00:09:29,342 and they're less likely to say that someone who changes his mind 186 00:09:29,366 --> 00:09:30,628 seems weak. 187 00:09:30,652 --> 00:09:32,537 And above all, scouts are grounded, 188 00:09:32,561 --> 00:09:36,466 which means their self-worth as a person 189 00:09:36,490 --> 00:09:41,956 isn't tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic. 190 00:09:41,980 --> 00:09:45,234 So they can believe that capital punishment works. 191 00:09:45,258 --> 00:09:48,071 If studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say, 192 00:09:48,095 --> 00:09:52,004 "Huh. Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid." 193 00:09:53,774 --> 00:09:58,100 This cluster of traits is what researchers have found -- 194 00:09:58,124 --> 00:09:59,830 and I've also found anecdotally -- 195 00:09:59,854 --> 00:10:01,685 predicts good judgment. 196 00:10:02,206 --> 00:10:05,489 And the key takeaway I want to leave you with about those traits 197 00:10:05,513 --> 00:10:09,150 is that they're primarily not about how smart you are 198 00:10:09,174 --> 00:10:11,172 or about how much you know. 199 00:10:11,196 --> 00:10:14,002 In fact, they don't correlate very much with IQ at all. 200 00:10:14,458 --> 00:10:16,108 They're about how you feel. 201 00:10:16,669 --> 00:10:20,692 There's a quote that I keep coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry. 202 00:10:20,716 --> 00:10:22,657 He's the author of "The Little Prince." 203 00:10:22,681 --> 00:10:25,450 He said, "If you want to build a ship, 204 00:10:26,054 --> 00:10:30,675 don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders 205 00:10:30,699 --> 00:10:32,119 and distribute the work. 206 00:10:32,489 --> 00:10:37,056 Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea." 207 00:10:38,072 --> 00:10:40,218 In other words, I claim, 208 00:10:40,670 --> 00:10:43,830 if we really want to improve our judgment as individuals 209 00:10:43,854 --> 00:10:45,297 and as societies, 210 00:10:45,321 --> 00:10:48,830 what we need most is not more instruction in logic 211 00:10:48,854 --> 00:10:52,402 or rhetoric or probability or economics, 212 00:10:52,426 --> 00:10:54,509 even though those things are quite valuable. 213 00:10:54,533 --> 00:10:57,837 But what we most need to use those principles well 214 00:10:57,861 --> 00:10:59,279 is scout mindset. 215 00:10:59,303 --> 00:11:01,183 We need to change the way we feel. 216 00:11:01,579 --> 00:11:05,389 We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed 217 00:11:05,413 --> 00:11:08,051 when we notice we might have been wrong about something. 218 00:11:08,075 --> 00:11:11,203 We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive 219 00:11:11,227 --> 00:11:15,470 when we encounter some information that contradicts our beliefs. 220 00:11:16,375 --> 00:11:19,235 So the question I want to leave you with is: 221 00:11:19,637 --> 00:11:21,787 What do you most yearn for? 222 00:11:22,591 --> 00:11:25,218 Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs? 223 00:11:25,948 --> 00:11:29,542 Or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can? 224 00:11:30,172 --> 00:11:31,323 Thank you. 225 00:11:31,347 --> 00:11:36,344 (Applause)